As part of our ongoing efforts to enhance water treatment and drinking water quality within intoDBP, the WP5 team has delivered modelling and forecasting workflows for both short- and long-term predictions of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in raw source waters. These workflows were presented at the 24-month project meeting held at Dublin City University (DCU). The workflows aim to provide useful information to water treatment managers on DOC as an important precursor for the formation of DPBs (disinfection by-products).

The workflows integrate machine learning (e.g. random forest) and process-based modelling to address the challenges posed by diverse catchments and reservoirs. At the catchment scale, process-based models like GWLF and INCA-C are being applied to simulate hydrological and water quality dynamics. For lake systems, models such as the General Lake Model (GLM) coupled with the Aquatic Ecosystem Dynamics (AED) module are being explored as prospective candidates to simulate lake responses to changing climatic and environmental conditions.
The modelling framework is currently being tested and evaluated in two contrasting case studies:

  • Sau Reservoir, Spain: This heavily regulated reservoir has been severely impacted by drought in recent years. The modelling efforts aim to provide insights into DOC dynamics and predict future levels to support strategic water management and treatment.
  • Lough Feeagh, Ireland: Located in a peaty catchment, this relatively undisturbed freshwater lake offers an opportunity to study DOC dynamics in relatively undisturbed systems, serving as a baseline for comparison with more intensively regulated sites.

A key feature of this initiative is the commitment to transparency and accessibility. All predictions generated by these workflows are aimed to be made freely available online, enabling researchers, policymakers, and the public to access and explore the data. Here is a running preliminary example of the workflow applied to predict the next seven days of precursors of DBPs in the Sau Reservoir, the tool currently updates every three hours providing the most up-to-date information available.